It’s finally time for our betting prediction and pick for the Co-Main Event at UFC Macau. Ranked contenders in the Women’s Strawweight (115) Division will meet as China’s No. 2-ranked Yan Xiaonan will take on Brazil’s No. 10-ranked Tabatha Ricci. Check out our UFC odds series for our Xiaonan-Ricci prediction and pick.
Yan Xiaonan (18-4) has gone an impressive 8-3 since joining the roster in 2017. She most recently fought Zhang Weili in a title fight for the Strawweight belt, but came up short in a one-sided decision loss. Now, she’ll look to establish herself once again as the hungriest contender in the division. Xiaonan stands 5’5″ with a 63-inch reach.
Tabatha Ricci (11-2) has gone 6-2 in the UFC since 2021. Her last four fights have gone to a decision with Ricci on the right side of three of them. She most recently took down Angela Hill in a unanimous decision effort and could exact a future title shot if she’s able to notch the upset here. Ricci stands 5’1″ with a 61-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Macau Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Macau Odds: Yan Xiaonan-Tabatha Ricci Odds
Yan Xiaonan: -198
Tabatha Ricci: +164
Over 2.5 rounds: -445
Under 2.5 rounds: +310
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Why Yan Xiaonan Will Win
Yan Xiaonan went on a sudden tear through the division with decisive wins over top contenders Mackenzie Dern and Jessica Andrade. While her title shot may have been premature, she stood a great chance against her fellow countrywoman in Weili Zhang. She has one of the most vicious striking games in the division and backs it up with a tremendous chin and will to move forward. If this bout becomes a war of attrition, we have to like Yan’s chances in outlasting her opponent through a brawl. Her experience in a championship fight should also bode well for her confidence as she tries to return to a title opportunity.
She has the power to end things with ONE punch
@YanXiaonan is headed full steam into the #UFCMacau co-main event! pic.twitter.com/teSGNaYH0c
— UFC (@ufc) November 19, 2024
Yan Xiaonan possesses unique knockout power as something generally missing from this weight class. She’s more likely to knock her opponents down before they can return the favor, so expect her to feel confident against an opponent that has just one knockout on her record. Xiaonan is also very skilled in escaping on the ground and she should be able to combat any submission attempts from Ricci.
Why Tabatha Ricci Will Win
Tabatha Ricci is fully confident that she has earned this spot and given her recent performances over top competition, she seems to still be improving with each passing fight. Ricci has looked increasingly comfortable through the striking exchanges for a fighter that came in with a jiu jitsu background. She’s still willing to lean on her grappling if she feels an advantage in that area, but expect her to fully welcome the striking exchanges as she tries to earn her opponent’s respect.
Don’t sleep on Baby Shark’s ground game
[ #UFCMacau | Live on @ESPNPlus | 6amET/3amPT ] pic.twitter.com/iJZbeNk24Q@TabathaRicci is looking to climb the ranks with a win on Saturday!
— UFC (@ufc) November 20, 2024
While she may want to stand and strike with Xiaonan, Ricci stands to have the most success grappling and putting her opponent on her back. She looked great against Angela Hill on the ground and we already know she’s built to go the distance with her cardio and output. It’ll be interesting to see how she responds when met with equal resistance, but she’s confident in her ability to stand toe-to-toe with anyone in the division.
Final Yan Xiaonan-Tabatha Ricci Prediction & Pick
This should be a fun Co-Main Event as both women are looking to cement themselves as next-in-line for a title opportunity. Yan Xiaonan comes in off a title loss, but it’s worth remembering she’s one of the more dangerous fighters in this division. She’s solid just about everywhere and is one of the few women willing to take more damage just to get her shots off.
Tabatha Ricci has a clear advantage here with her jiu jitsu, but it’ll be tough to bring Xiaonan down behind a 62% takedown defense rate. Xiaonan is also the more accurate takedown artist, so we wouldn’t be surprised if this fight too place primarily on the feet.
From there, I think the striking technique and opportunity for output has to favor Yan Xiaonan. Tabatha Ricci has faced some dangerous opponents in the past, but this step-up in competition may be too much too fast for the prospect. Let’s roll with the betting favorite in this one.
Final Yan Xiaonan-Tabatha Ricci Prediction & Pick: Yan Xiaonan (-198)
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