DESPITE the loss to Monaco last week, Aston Villa are still among possible contenders for automatic Champions League qualification.
The Villans’ high flying Champions League campaign took another hitch as an uninspiring 1-0 defeat in Monaco left them outside the top eight – which guarantees progression to the last 16.
A win in Villa’s final league game will give them a chance of qualifying for the Champions League last 16[/caption]
Unai Emery’s men are ninth in the League Phase table, joint on 13 points with five other teams, including Bayer Leverkusen, who occupy the final automatic spot.
So far, Villa have won four, drew once and lost twice.
What do Aston Villa need to do to guarantee Champions League round of 16 qualification?
Their final game, Celtic at home, provides an enticing affair where only a win will give them a chance to go straight into the Round of 16.
The opportunity arose after Bayern Munich’s shock defeat to Feyenoord and Brest’s defeat.
Those not in the top eight positions either fall into the play-off spots – ninth to 24th – or are immediately eliminated.
Villa are offered the security blanket of at least a play-off spot.
Opta have calculated that the Midlands side are favourites to scrape the all-decisive eight spot.
A supercomputer simulation – that estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in the competition – has Villa down for a 52.6 per cent probability of clinching it.
For that to happen, Villa will have to beat Celtic and also need one of Bayer Leverkusen, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan or Atalanta to not follow suit.
The teams behind Villa – Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille and Brest – can also match the former’s final tally but their goal difference is inferior.
Villa’s potential for a seeded spot will likely hinge on Atalanta and whether they can beat Barcelona – which would be needed to stay in the top eight.
All outcomes are permutation-driven and ultimately out of Villa’s hand, who can only win to give themselves the best possible chance.
