It is crazy to think that we are entering the last several weeks of the 2024-25 NBA season. With about eight weeks remaining coming out of the All-Star break, every team and player in the league has a different goal. For many, it’s all about closing out the NBA season on a strong note to win certain awards and make the playoffs.
The race to make the playoffs will occur over the next seven weeks. Given all the teams that are within a game or two of one another in the Western Conference, every game matters a little bit more after the All-Star break. For teams like the Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, and Phoenix Suns, three early-season contenders who have struggled as of late, each win or loss could be the difference in their season.
Every year, teams always look different after the All-Star break. Those finding a lot of success sometimes hit a wall around this time, while others rise to the occasion and get hot at the right time.
Much like what happens with some teams going on a run during March Madness, the NBA has seen a similar trend in recent years with the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves making their respective Conference Finals last year.
Could the same thing happen again this year, with overlooked teams becoming clear-cut title contenders?
Will the Boston Celtics reign supreme again and claim their second straight title?
Which players will ultimately take home the end-of-season honors, such as MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and other NBA awards?
Although some of these predictions will undoubtedly be wrong since I am not a fortune teller, here is a quick look at how the 2024-25 NBA season will play out, with bold predictions for the NBA awards and what happens in the standings and playoffs.
NBA awards predictions: MVP, DPOY, more
At this point in the season, many of the NBA award races are coming down to the last few candidates.
Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the clear options for MVP, while Victor Wembanyama reigns supreme over the rest of the pack for Defensive Player of the Year. There are then close races for Sixth Man, Rookie, and Most Improved Player.
Injuries will play a role in how each of these NBA awards is determined, and there are still plenty of games left for players to prove themselves. After all, Naz Reid sealed the deal for Sixth Man of the Year last season in the final few weeks of the regular season.
So, which players will claim this season’s NBA awards? Let’s start with the two-man MVP race.
Most Valuable Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder own the best record in the league, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leading all players in scoring. Even with Nikola Jokic having his best season and averaging a triple-double, Gilgeous-Alexander has earned the right to be called the MVP favorite.
At this point, unless SGA suffers an injury in the final weeks of the regular season, he will become the third player in Thunder history to win the MVP award, joining Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
Gilgeous-Alexander leads all players in 20-point, 30-point, 40-point, and 50-point games this season, and he could wind up leading Oklahoma City to the best record in the entire NBA.
Between this and the fact that Jokic has won the award three of the last four years, voters will be leaning for the young guard to be the latest international player to win the NBA MVP award.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
If there is one NBA award that is locked up at this point, it’s the Defensive Player of the Year award with Victor Wembanyama.
The first-time All-Star big man leads the league in blocks by a wide margin and has been the best all-around defensive player. This first Defensive Player of the Year award, which should’ve come last season for Wemby, will be the first of many in his career.
Sixth Man of the Year: Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics
With De’Andre Hunter being traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers, his chances of winning the Sixth Man of the Year award have decreased. Although anyone could still emerge as the best bench player, Payton Pritchard has consistently been in the driver’s seat for this award since the start of the year.
Pritchard has averaged a career-high 13.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game while shooting 46.8 percent from the floor and 41.1 percent from three-point range. He has come off the bench in all 54 games he’s appeared in for Boston.
The Celtics may have the best starting group in the NBA, but Pritchard’s bench contributions have once again made them contending threats in the East.
Rookie of the Year: Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs
Out of all the NBA award races after the All-Star break, the Rookie of the Year is the biggest toss-up for once. Early on, it seemed like Jared McCain would run away with this award. He then suffered a season-ending knee injury, opening the door for Stephon Castle, Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, and Jaylen Wells.
We can also include Zach Edey in the mix, but he has missed a chunk of time and has not been as productive as these other rookies.
Between Castle, Risacher, and Wells, it’s the Spurs rookie guard who has been the most consistent. Castle currently leads all rookies in scoring at 12.9 points per game, and he’s playing his best basketball at the perfect time to seize this award.
It also helps that Castle put on a great show during All-Star Weekend in the Dunk Contest and the Rising Stars games.
As of right now, Castle is the favorite for the Rookie of the Year race, and he should be stepping into a larger role next to De’Aaron Fox coming out of the All-Star break.
Most Improved Player: Norman Powell, LA Clippers
Through the years, the Most Improved Player award has been the “first-time All-Star award.” Although Cade Cunningham has been terrific this season and should get some All-NBA consideration, he’s always been a really good player.
Cunningham averaged 22.7 points per game last season and was the first overall pick in 2021. Expectations should be high for Cunningham, and the Detroit Pistons guard has certainly lived up to the hype.
However, if we are talking about the most improved player in the league from last season to this year, it has to be LA Clippers veteran Norman Powell.
The 31-year-old shooting guard has put together a fantastic year to this point in his 10th NBA season. After being a Sixth Man of the Year candidate last season, Powell has stepped up and filled the void left behind by Paul George, averaging 24.2 points and 3.6 rebounds per game while shooting 49.6 percent from the floor and 42.8 percent from three-point range.
It’s a complete joke that Powell wasn’t named an All-Star this season, especially since he ranks inside the top 20 in scoring and is one of the main reasons why the Clippers find themselves above the play-in region in the West standings.
The league and media voters need to give Powell the recognition he deserves, considering that he’s improved his scoring by 74 percent and both of his shooting splits have increased despite taking roughly seven more shots every game.
No matter how you look at it, Powell has been this season’s most improved player.
Bold predictions for remainder of 2024-25 NBA season
Now that the NBA award predictions are made, how will the remainder of the 2024-25 NBA season play out? Every team has between 26 and 30 games left on their schedules coming out of the All-Star break, and what the standings look like now is not what they will look like when the regular season ends in April.
The Western Conference is very intriguing to discuss because the LA Clippers currently occupy the sixth seed and are just 3.5 games ahead of the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors for the last two spots in the play-in region of the standings. Then, there is the competition forming behind the Thunder for second, third, and fourth place.
Over in the Eastern Conference, the Cavaliers are looking to make history at the top of the standings, while four teams have their eyes set on possibly securing the first-overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft via the draft lottery.
Here are five bold predictions about how the 2024-25 season, including the playoffs, will play out.
Prediction #1: Cavaliers cross 65-win plateau
A total of 21 teams have ever won at least 65 games in a single season. Of those 21 teams, 15 of them went on to win a championship. Whether or not the Cavs can win it all and truly take down the Celtics is yet to be seen, but Cleveland can win at least 65 games this season.
Exiting the All-Star break, the Cavs are tied with the Thunder for the best record in the league at 44-10 overall. While the Cavaliers will have some key matchups against New York, Memphis, and Boston before the end of February, this team has a relatively easy schedule down the stretch.
Outside of a five-game road trip against Western Conference foes, Cleveland won’t play more than two straight road games before returning home. They also have five back-to-backs remaining on their schedule.
In order to reach 65 wins, the Cavs need to win at least 21 of their 28 games. As long as everyone remains healthy, Cleveland has the scoring prowess and defensive tenacity to reach this mark, especially since their longest losing streak is only three games this season.
Prediction #2: Mavericks miss the playoffs altogether
The Western Conference is a labyrinth right now. One loss by a certain team could completely shake up the standings, and many playoff spots will be determined by a series of tiebreakers. That is why every win and each loss count a little bit more after the All-Star break.
If there is one team positioned to take a step back after the break, it’s the Dallas Mavericks since they are without Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, and Anthony Davis. Dallas also doesn’t have Luka Doncic anymore if you live under a rock and didn’t hear that news a couple of weeks ago.
As good as Kyrie Irving is, he alone can’t carry the Mavs to the playoffs. With no true depth in their frontcourt for several weeks, the Mavericks are in trouble since they will play big teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, and San Antonio Spurs.
How Dallas looks immediately after the All-Star break against the Warriors and Lakers will tell the tale of how their season unfolds. Back-to-back losses to these teams will result in the Mavs falling further down the West standings, allowing a team like the Phoenix Suns or Spurs to take advantage of the opportunity.
Right now, it’s hard to believe in the Mavs, which is why they may very well fall out of the play-in tournament region altogether.
Prediction #3: Raptors win draft lottery, No. 1 pick
The 2025 NBA Draft will be filled with athletic, high-potential players throughout the lottery. Any team that gets a pick inside the top 10 will be happy with the prospect they can get. However, whoever ends up with the first overall pick gets Cooper Flagg. Could the Toronto Raptors be that team?
There is really no way to predict the draft lottery, as it all depends on how the ping pong balls operate. But how great would it be to see the Toronto Raptors, who just traded for Brandon Ingram, add another Duke forward to complete their core group and immediately become threats in the East?
Not too long ago, the New Orleans Pelicans went from being tied for the seventh-worst record in the league to winning the lottery and selecting Zion Williamson. The Raptors currently own the fifth-worst record in the league, which would give them a 10.5 percent chance of landing the top pick.
Ingram with Flagg would be a really strong forward duo, plus the Raptors would still have Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, and Gradey Dick. That team would be primed for immediate growth and instantly become a playoff threat in the East.
Prediction #4: Warriors claim West 6-seed
This season has already been a whirlwind for the Warriors. After starting the year 12-3 and looking like a possible championship threat in the West, Golden State hit a wall and found themselves with a 25-25 record entering the trade deadline. That is when this organization finally pulled the trigger on a big deal to land superstar forward Jimmy Butler.
Since Butler entered the lineup, the Warriors have gone 3-1, and Stephen Curry just looks different. A ton of weight has been lifted from Curry’s shoulders, and the team as a whole is playing with newfound energy. We will learn very quickly if this honeymoon phase has ended coming out of the All-Star break, but Draymond Green is confident that the Dubs have what it takes to win it all.
“I said, I think we’re gonna win a championship, but I lied. We are going to win the championship,” Green said during TNT’s broadcast of the 2025 NBA All-Star Game. “It’s going to happen.”
The Warriors are currently 28-27, tied with the Sacramento Kings for the 9-seed. All it takes is a few wins to creep closer to the 6-seed in the West, which is why this is certainly not out of striking distance for Golden State.
With this said, the Dubs must win their first two games against Sacramento and Dallas coming out of the All-Star break and handle business against those with a losing record.
Wins over the Kings and Mavs would go a long way toward Golden State’s eventual goal of claiming the 6-seed or better and making the playoffs without having to play in the play-in tournament.
Prediction #5: Neither 1-seed makes 2025 NBA Finals
Unless something crazy happens, the Cavaliers and Thunder will be the top teams from the Eastern and Western Conferences, respectively, entering the playoffs. While both teams will be favored to win a championship, neither team, if they are the 1-seed, will make it to the NBA Finals.
This is not all that uncommon, as only three of the last 10 teams to make the NBA Finals were the top teams in their conference. Then again, three of the last five NBA champions were their conference’s 1-seed entering the playoffs, including two straight.
As good as the Cavs have been, it’s hard to think they will defeat the Celtics in a seven-game series. Boston has won two of three games against Cleveland so far during the regular season, and the Celtics have already proven that they can win a championship. The Cavs are the new kids on the block and have something to prove.
Over in the West, no team fears the Thunder. This is a great, young team that will be around for years to come, but if you put them up against the Warriors, Lakers, or Suns, the experienced champions on those veteran teams will have the edge.
It may not be all that much of a stretch to say that the teams fighting for a play-in tournament spot in the West are better equipped to win a championship than either the Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies, or Houston Rockets at the top of the West standings.
The Cavs and Thunder are two great teams, but neither makes it to the NBA Finals this season. Expect the unexpected, especially in the West, when it comes to the playoffs.
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