DONALD Trump’s extraordinary attack on Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelensky this week has changed the game when it comes to Russia.
The United States’ shift on embattled Ukraine was a stunning reversal on policy under President Joe Biden.
As a result, Europe’s role in the conflict and peace talks has come into sharper focus.
Tanaiste Simon Harris has said “there can be nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, nor can there be anything about Europe or European security without Europe in the room as well”.
The prospect of Irish peacekeeping troops being sent to the frontline there has been mooted, although Mr Harris insists we are not at that point yet.
Today in the Irish Sun, former TD and Army Ranger Cathal Berry discusses the dramatic events of recent days and what it might mean for the Defence Forces and Ireland.
IRELAND’S PEACEKEEPING CONSTRAINTS
IT is said that there are decades where nothing happens, then weeks where decades happen. We’ve just had one such week.
The combined fallout from the recent NATO summit in Brussels, the Munich Security Conference and the US-Russian negotiations in Saudi Arabia, have sent shockwaves through Europe.
Clearly the geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, and Ireland is not immune to the downstream consequences.
The focus of these three international gatherings was Ukraine.
With the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion only days away, there is renewed impetus to achieve a just and durable settlement to end Europe’s bloodiest conflict in 80 years.
Trust is in short supply, however. Should a truce be agreed, then some form of international peacekeeping force will be needed to monitor the ceasefire.
This begs the question: should Ireland, with its vast experience in peacekeeping operations, partake?
The Irish government have indicated that they are open to participation, but with political caveats.
The chief constraint as always, however, is Ireland’s meagre military capability.
This is a direct result of decades of underinvestment in our national security. In particular, the reduction in troop numbers from 10,500 to 7,500 in the last 15 years has had devastating consequences for operations.
BUDGET DIFFERENCES
Ireland’s Defence budget is the equivalent of five per cent of our Health budget.
While most reasonable people would accept that Health should be prioritised over National Security in peacetime, most would also agree that a 20-fold differential is too extreme.
This funding disparity was laid bare during the cyber-attack four years ago, when the lack of investment in National Security had a catastrophic effect on our Health Service.
Incredibly, the annual Health budget is increased every year by a similar amount to the entire Defence budget.
NO AIRCRAFT
Consequently, it will be difficult for Ireland to contribute to the peacekeeping effort in Ukraine in any meaningful way.
For instance, any international peace-keeping force is likely to have land, sea and air components.
Ireland doesn’t have a single jet aircraft capable of participating in any air policing mission to secure Ukraine’s airspace and open it up to commercial air traffic.
We have never even deployed a helicopter overseas on a peacekeeping mission. This is not normal.
OVERSTRETCHED MILITARY
Similarly, our Navy isn’t adequately resourced to protect our own territorial waters, let alone being deployed to the Black Sea to secure shipping lanes from Ukrainian ports.
Our Army is also overstretched, with 350 troops already deployed internationally.
Nevertheless, should a military force be required to secure the peace in Ukraine, the only contribution Ireland could realistically make would be land-based peacekeeping operations.
Of course, these are also the most risky.
OPTIONS FOR DECISION
Despite their meagre resources, military planners will prepare options for government decision. These might include:
Option 1: The deployment of Engineer Special Search and Ordnance bomb-disposal teams.
These would assist with battlefield clearance operations, by disposing of unexploded bombs, booby-traps and land mines.
It is particularly hazardous work but a niche capability in which Ireland excels.
TROOPS AT HIGH READINESS
Option 2: The deployment of a mechanised rifle company.
Coincidentally, such an Irish unit is already assigned to an EU Battlegroup.
It has 150 troops and is maintained at high readiness.
While the personnel are on standby in Ireland, their armoured vehicles are pre-positioned in Germany.
REDEPLOY OPERATION
The use of the continent’s extensive rail network for freight and rolling stock would greatly simplify the logistics of any potential deployment to Ukraine.
While there may be some bureaucratic obstacles in extracting such a unit from its EU Battlegroup commitment, these would not be insurmountable.
Option 3: Withdraw from UNIFIL Lebanon and redeploy to Ukraine.
In the past Ireland could easily sustain two relatively large scale, simultaneous peacekeeping operations in two different theatres of operation.
DIFFICULT CHOICES
Sadly, this is no longer the case and now difficult choices like this are being forced upon us.
In summary, it is in Ireland’s vital national interest that a just and lasting peace be restored in Ukraine as soon as possible.
Not least because of the 112,000 Ukrainian refugees who have sought refuge here.
It is unfortunate that we are not able to add greater value to any peacekeeping initiative though – particularly when so much is at stake.
Clearly, greater resources must be provided for our armed forces.
The revised National Development Plan to be published in July is the next opportunity to do so.
There is no time to waste.
