The home run leader last season was Aaron Judge, the second time in three seasons that Judge led the MLB in home runs. Judge had 58 home runs while the only other player with 50 home runs last season was Shohei Ohtani, who had 54.
There are a lot of sluggers that could have massive seasons this upcoming season. Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Yordan Alvarez are four sluggers who could take the thrown away from Judge or Ohtani.
Judge or Ohtani are the favorites, but it is not a lock for either one this season. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with an MLB regular season home run prediction and pick. The depth is there. Let’s predict who is the best at hitting the long ball this year.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Home Run Leader Odds
Aaron Judge: +270
Shohei Ohtani: +500
Kyle Schwarber: +1000
Pete Alonso: +1500
Fernando Tatis Jr.: +1500
Yordan Alvarez: +1500
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Why Aaron Judge Becomes the 2025 Home Run Leader
Judge is probably the best power hitter in baseball. Last season, he hit 59 home runs and 144 RBI, the best in the league. He also had a .322 batting average, a 1.159 OPS, and a .458 OBP. Judge has been on a hot streak recently, leading the league this season and in 2022 when he broke the record for the most home runs ever in the AL, finishing with 62.
Judge is primed for a massive season once again because the Yankees surrounded him with sluggers to take the focus off him. It is challenging for teams to account for him, Stanton, Goldschmid, Volpe, Bellinger, and Chisholm simultaneously. Judge is also the healthiest he has ever been in his career and is primed to stay on top of the stat board. It is also worth noting that Yankee Stadium is a home run-friendly ballpark. Judge is the player that makes this Yankee’s offense go as the engine, and it is hard to see him fall off at all one year after the season he just had.
It’s easy to see why Judge is the odds-on favorite, but baseball is the one sport with so many different variables that you can’t assume anything.
Why Shohei Ohtani Becomes the 2025 Home Run Leader
Ohtani is the best all-around player in the MLB. This past season, he created the 50-50 club by hitting 54 home runs and stealing 59 bases. He also had 130 RBI, a .310 batting average, a 1.036 OPS, and a.390 OBP. Ohtani is also on a loaded roster like the Dodgers, but he stands alone as the best and best player by a long shot.
Players like Smith, Freeman, Betts, Muncy, Edman, and Hernandez also help Ohtani because they relieve the pressure. However, you still have to perform, and no one does it better than him. It is no coincidence that he had his best season ever the minute he joined the Dodgers. He has never led the entire MLB in home runs in his career, but he got closest last season.
Ohtani has never been hotter in his career, but the issue that might hold him back is that he will go back to pitching more this season. Last year, he didn’t pitch due to an injury, which allowed him to focus mainly on hitting. If he starts throwing more, the strain on his body might hurt his power.
Why Kyle Schwarber or Fernando Tatis Jr. Becomes the 2025 Home Run Leader
Kyle Schwarber is in contention for this honor every season, and he has garnered the most attention for his clutch home runs in the postseason, which has been dubbed “Shwarbombs.” He has highlight reel plays consistently, but the issue is if he can stay consistent. Last season, he had a .248 batting average, 38 home runs, 104 RBI, a .851 OPS, and a .366 OBP. He can launch bombs, but he’s not getting any younger, and it seems like the Phillies are at the end of this current run.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is also the poster of mashing home runs in the postseason. It also comes back to consistency with him. He had a .276 batting average, 21 home runs, 49 RBI, a .833 OPS, and a .340 OBP. Tatis dealt with some injuries last season that kept him out of the lineup, and it is also true that he is not getting any younger, either.
These two are the best at getting on Sportscenter, but they must offer more than that to lead the entire MLB in home runs.
Final 2025 Home Run Leader Prediction & Pick
I am sticking with Shohei Ohtani’s superhuman skills. Ohtani somehow got even better last season, and he should keep improving. The pitching concerns me, but I like Ohtani the most and think he will finish the year as the 2025 home run leader.
Final Home Run Leader Prediction & Pick: Shohei Ohtani +500
The post MLB Regular Season Home Run Leader Prediction & Pick 2025 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
