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Buccaneers X-Factor vs. Commanders, and it’s not Baker Mayfield

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the playoffs for the fifth straight year after winning the NFC South. They will host the Washington Commanders on Sunday night in a primetime playoff matchup. After beating the Philadelphia Eagles on Wild Card Weekend last year, expectations are high. Mike Evans is the key to a Buccaneers victory over the Commanders, not Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield is in his second season with the Buccaneers, taking over for Tom Brady before last season. While he will not win the MVP, it was a season worthy of some votes come awards season. With another solid quarterback under center, Tampa has been a playoff mainstay in the 2020s. They have won more games this decade than any other NFC team.

This will be a tough matchup because of the Commanders’ offense. Kliff Kingsbury coordinates the group led by rookie Jayden Daniels that got them this far. While the Buccaneers have had a solid season on defense, they have a tough matchup in the first round. And it means that the Bucs offense will have to score a lot to win the game.

Mike Evans was one of the stories of Week 18, cracking 1000 yards for the 11th consecutive season. That is the record for 1000 yard seasons to start a career and tied Jerry Rice’s all-time record. Mayfield has helped him get there the last two years and the veteran wide receiver will have to dominate in this game.

Chris Godwin is out for the season after a strong start to the year. That puts more pressure on Evans and rookie Jalen McMillian. But both of those players have responded and helped the Buccaneers overcome two losses to the Falcons to win the NFC South. This matchup will be a particuarly personal one for Evans and a Commanders corner.

Mike Evans vs Marshon Lattimore will determine Buccaneers’ fate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) catches the ball as New Orleans Saints defensive back Jordan Howden (31) looks to make the tackle in the first half at Raymond James Stadium.
Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

The Commanders made a big trade at the deadline to pick up cornerback Marshon Lattimore from the New Orleans Saints. While he was hurt for the first part of his tenure with Washington, he came back for the end of the season. Now, he has a second matchup with Evans, continuing their contentious rivalry.

Lattimore got under Evans’ skin on multiple occassions, as the wide receiver has picked up two suspensions over the years. In their Week 5 matchup, Evans had two receptions for 34 yards on six targets. Lattimore covered him well but did not get him to take any silly penalties. It is more important that the wideout keeps his cool than anything else.

But if Evans flips the script and dominates Lattimore, the Buccaneers will be in business. Even though it took him until the last play of the season to reach 1000 yards, it was a great season for the wide receiver. They needed him to step up with Godwin on the shelf and he did. That must continue in this game.

McMillian is also a big part of the Buccaneers’ success in the second half. The rookie ended the season with 316 yards and seven touchdowns in his last five games. Evans will get the spotlight but McMillian could be the difference in a victory and defeat. If tight end Cade Otton plays, that will help get Evans open as well.

According to FanDuel, the Buccaneers are 3-point favorites and -166 on the money line. Evans is +105 to score a touchdown, his yards over/under is 76.5 and his receptions total is 5.5.

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