The Atlanta Braves look to bounce back from a sub-par season. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with an Atlanta Braves over/under win total prediction and pick.
From 2018 through the 2023 season, the Braves won the division title in each season. Further, of the five full seasons in that time, they won 90 or more games in four of them. That includes over 100 wins in both 2022 and 2023. Still, after multiple injuries and players having their worst seasons, the Braves failed to win the division for the first time since 2017, going 89-73. This would place them six games behind the Phillies but still making the playoffs. They would lose in the NL Wild Card round 2-0 to the Padres.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 93.5 Wins: -114
Under 93.5 Wins: -106
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Why You Should Bet the Over
First, Ronald Acuna Jr. will return to the lineup from a torn ACL at some point this season. The 2023 NL MVP has been a four-time all-star, received MVP votes in two other seasons, won three silver sluggers, and was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2018. He was off to a slower start in 2024, having a 0.0 WAR before going down, but in 2023, he produced an 8.2 WAR while hitting 41 home runs, 106 RBIs, and stealing 73 bases.
Also returning to the lineup this year this year will be Spencer Strider. Strider made just two starts last year, with a -0.1 WAR. Still, in his two full seasons, he has received Rookie of the Year votes and Cy Young votes, plus made an all-star team. He had 31 wins to just 10 losses in the two years while having nearly 300 strikeouts in 2023. If he can return to that level of production, he will anchor the pitching staff. Chris Sale also returns to the rotation. He is coming off his best season, winning 18 games and the Cy Young.
Finally, Jurickson Profar joins the lineup for the Braves. Last year, he broke out, making his first all-star team, winning a Silver Slugger, and finishing 14th in MVP voting. He had a 3.6 WAR last year while hitting 24 home runs and driving in 85 RBIs. Further, Profar has the best OPS+ of his career.
Why You Should Bet the Under
First, the Braves will need Matt Olson to return to his 2023 form if they are going to go over the win total. Still, 2023 seems to be the anomaly, not the norm, for Matt Olson. In 202,3, he has a 7.4 WAR, made his second all-star team, and had career highs in home runs and RBIs. Still, in his three seasons in Atlanta, he has been closer to the production he put out last year. He is averaging a 4.38 WAR over the three seasons, heavily weighted by his 2023 season. Further, his slugging and OPS+ were both significantly higher in 2023 than his career average.
The Braves also need to replace significant parts of their rotation while waiting for Spencer Strider to return. Max Fried won 11 games last year in his 29 starts. Over the last four seasons, he has won 47 games while making 101 starts. His 162-game season averages on his career have him winning 16 games and having a 4.9 WAR in the process. They also lost AJ Minter from the bullpen and Charlie Morton from their rotation. Charlie Morton won 14 games twice in his four seasons with the Braves.
Finally, there has been some decline from other major bats in the lineup. Austin Riley has seen his WAR, OPS+, slugging, and home run totals decline each of the last two years. While he may be better than his 2.9 WAR of last year, expecting him to return to hitting nearly 40 home runs and 100 RBIs seems difficult. Ozzie Albies also saw a major step back in his production when he was healthy. His power, OPS, and rOBA statistics per at-bat all took a step back last year.
Final Braves Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
This will be a tough division to get wins in. While the Braves should be able to beat up on the Marlins, the Mets and Nationals should be improved. Further, the Phillies bring back a similar roster to what won the division last year. The Braves were still solid last year without Ronald Acuna Jr and Spencer Strider, but they lost key parts to their pitching rotation, even with Chris Sale returning. The only major offensive upgrade was bringing in Jurickson Profar. Matt Olson was not nearly as good last year without Acuna in the lineup and will have to play a portion of the season without him. If he starts slow, he may remain in a prolonged slump. With all these factors working against the Braves, take the under on the win total.
Final Braves Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 93.5 (-106)
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