THE odds of an asteroid that could “wipe out Ireland” if it collides with Earth have gone up again, with an expert saying: “We’re not fully prepared for anything like this.”
Astronomy experts have raised the alarm about a 100-metre-wide asteroid called 2024 YR4.
The odds of the asteroid hitting Earth have gone up again[/caption]
The asteroid now tops NASA’s potentially hazardous objects list and is ranked first on the Sentry list of potential Earth impact events.
Sentry is a system used to monitor and analyse current asteroid data, and according to the latest information the asteroid’s chances of impact have increased.
When the space rock was first detected by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System in December 2024, experts initially gave it a 1.2 percent – or one-in-83 – chance of colliding with Earth.
Earlier this month, those odds were raised to 2.3 percent, or one-in-43.
And as of this morning, the probability has increased further with the chance of impact now at 2.6 percent, or one-in-38 – more than double the initial estimate by astronomers.
Describing it as a “country killer”, David Moore from Astronomy Ireland said the increasing odds of it hitting Earth are worrying.
He told the Irish Sun: “We are not fully prepared for anything like this just yet, and it is definitely something to look out for.
“From December when it was first discovered, the odds of it hitting have kept going up and up – something you don’t want to see with an asteroid of this size.
“You don’t see asteroids like this often, and we can only see its path of direction every four years – that is where all of the worry is coming from.
“An asteroid of this size could easily wipe out the entire country; even if it doesn’t hit Ireland, we are sure to face repercussions if it comes anywhere close.”
The asteroid has triggered a global defence plan, with fears mounting that it could hit in 2032.
Roughly the size of the Statue of Liberty including its plinth, it has been moved to the top of the impact threat list by both US and European space agencies.
The only asteroid that ever had a higher impact rating was Apophis in 2004.
At the time of its discovery, calculations expected a collision by 2029, but its risk has since been downgraded, and it is now not expected to collide with Earth for another 100 years.
However, experts warn this asteroid poses a real threat.
Its recent discovery has already led to the activation of global defence measures – including two UN-endorsed asteroid response teams.
Moore added: “The size of this asteroid, YR4, means it could be 100 times more powerful than the atomic bombs of the Second World War, which were about 15,000 tonnes of TNT.”
And he also pointed out that we don’t have rockets ready to alter the asteroid’s trajectory, though a few experiments have been conducted.
Moore explained that a 100-meter asteroid wouldn’t burn up in Earth’s atmosphere and if it hit, it would cause an explosion with the force of a megaton.
And although he said there’s a 90 per cent chance it won’t hit Ireland, that 10 per cent is more than enough to be worried about.
