REFORM UK are now in third place in Scotland after a surge in support among working class men – with the Tories slumping to fourth, new polling reveals.
Nigel Farage‘s party are backed by 17 per cent of Scots for the headline constituency vote ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election, research for the academic-led Scottish Election Study has found.
Reform UK have pushed past the Tories to become the third biggest party in Scotland[/caption]
The backing is five points ahead of the Scottish Tories, while Reform are on 18 per cent for the regional vote – six points ahead of the Conservatives.
The polling by YouGov echoed recent surveys showing the SNP back ahead of Labour, with 33 per cent headline support from decided voters, compared to Labour’s 21 per cent.
Like the Tories, Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar‘s party have been losing support to Reform since last year’s General Election.
The SES team said analysis showed the growth in Reform support was “particularly high among men and those in social class C2DE and are drawing support particularly among former Conservative voters”.
They said: “Ideologically, party supporters place themselves to the right of all other parties, are most likely to oppose immigration, and mostly likely to distrust experts.”
But they said there were two drags on Reform support – the “general distaste in Scotland for the Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage“, who polled the lowest among any UK leader, and the lower likelihood of Reform backers to vote in elections.
The academics added: “These can be considered serious constraints on Reform growth in Scotland, but it is worth keeping in mind this is a party beginning from a standing start.”
Analysis last month from leading elections expert Prof Sir John Curtice – averaging previous polls – put Reform UK on 13 per cent for the constituency vote and 12 per cent for the regional vote.
In January 2024, the party were attracting only around one per cent of support in Scotland.
The SES’s Dr Fraser McMillan, from the University of Edinburgh, said “Our data show that Reform are attracting Scottish voters who were previously under-served by the political choices on offer.
“While the party might have difficulty appealing beyond those who are already convinced, their current supporters appear likely to stick with the party into May 2026.”
Professor Ailsa Henderson, principal investigator for the Scottish Election Study, added: “Scotland has long been a bit of a conundrum, an electorate possessing some small-c conservative attitudes that profoundly dislikes its own Conservative party.
“There are signs here that Reform is not saddled with the same negative evaluations that limit Conservative support.
“That said, Reform’s commitment to airing typically English grievances with the union, and their unpopular leader in Scotland could act as future drags on support in Scotland.
“On these figures though, the 2026 election looks like it will deliver something of an upset.”
The poll was conducted by YouGov among 1200 Scottish residents aged 16+ from February 25 to March 3.
