These two teams must keep winning. Mississippi State has struggled recently, while Arkansas has gotten hot and is trying to play itself off the bubble. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Mississippi State-Arkansas prediction and pick.
Mississippi State is 20-10 but has lost three of its last four games. They have had significant wins against SMU, Memphis, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss twice, Georgia, and Texas A&M. They also had substantial losses against Alabama twice, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Missouri, and Florida. Josh Hubbard is the engine of the Bulldogs, and they need him to play a giant game on the road against the Razorbacks.
Arkansas is 18-12 and has been red-hot recently, winning three of its last four games. It has notable wins against Michigan, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas twice, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. It also had massive losses in Baylor, Illinois, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Florida, Missouri, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Auburn. Adou Thierro needs to have a monster game against the Bulldogs to stay safe off the bubble.
Here are the Mississippi State-Arkansas College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Mississippi State-Arkansas Odds
Mississippi State: +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +100
Arkansas: -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -120
Over: 149.5 (-110)
Under: 149.5 (-110)
How to Watch Mississippi State vs. Arkansas
Time: noon ET/9:00 am PT
TV: SEC Network
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Mississippi State has had a solid season on offense this season. They score 79.2 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 45.2%, and a three-point percentage of 31%. This offense is also top-35 on KenPom with a 118.4 rating.
Despite the offense playing well, only two Bulldogs are averaging over double digits this season, and Josh Hubbard is easily the best scorer on the team, averaging 18.3 points per game. The Bulldogs have also been a solid team in moving the ball, averaging 15.3 assists per game. Also, Cameron Matthews is the assist leader, averaging 3.7 per game.
Josh Hubbard is the engine that makes this offense go either good or bad this season. The offense has improved this season and emerged as their team’s best aspect. This is a difficult matchup because the Razorbacks have gotten this far thanks to their defense.
Mississippi State’s defense has fallen off a cliff after being known as an elite defense last season. They allow 73.6 points per game, 43.5% from the field, and 36.6% from behind the arc. However, they are still a top-50 defense in KenPom in adjusted defense, with a 98.6 rating.
This frontcourt has been solid, with KeShawn Murphy and Cameron Matthews playing well. Murphy is the rebounding and blocks leader, averaging 7.5 and 1.2, respectively. Their perimeter and on-ball defense has been solid as well. Four players average one steal per game, and Matthews leads in steals with 2.5 per game.
Their defensive issues are fixable because Chris Jans is a defensive-minded coach, but the inconsistency might come back and bite them in this game in Arkansas. The Razorbacks are not offensive juggernauts, but it gets more challenging in Fayetteville.
Why Arkansas Will Cover The Spread/Win
Arkansas’s offense has been inconsistent this season. They score 76.1 points per game, have a 46.4% field goal percentage, and a 33.1% three-point shooting percentage. This offense is barely in the top 100 of adjusted offense in KenPom with a 112.2 rating.
Four Razorbacks are averaging over double digits in scoring, with Thiero being the best scorer on the team, averaging 15.6 points per game. Johnell Davis and DJ Wagner are next in scoring, averaging 11 and 10.7 points per game. The Razorbacks also average 14.3 assists per game and Wagner is the best passer on the team, averaging 3.4 per game.
The Razorbacks have playmakers and talent across their roster, but the offense has been missing consistency. They might have some success against a Mississippi State defense that has played well but is also struggling with consistency.
Arkansas’s defense has been its most prominent bright spot this season. They allow 70.2 points per game, 40.5% from the field, and 31.5% from behind the arc. They are also highly ranked on KenPom, ranking 15th in adjusted defense with a 94.4 rating.
The frontcourt has been solid for the Razorbacks. Thiero is one of the best players on this team and has been great on defense and offense. He leads the team in six rebounds and steals at 1.7 per game. Five total players also average at least one steal per game. Finally, three Razorbacks average at least one block per game, and Zvonimir Ivisic is the block leader, averaging 2.1 per game.
This defense has been their strength this season, and they can come at the Bulldogs in waves on defense. This is a battle of strength vs strength, but the Razorbacks have the athletes to clamp down on Mississippi State.
Final Mississippi State-Arkansas Prediction & Pick
Arkansas is the best bet in this game. The Razorbacks need the win to stay on the right side of the bubble and it helps that the game is at home in Fayetteville. Thiero, Wagner, and Davis should do enough and Arkansas should win and cover at home.
Final Mississippi State-Arkansas Prediction & Pick: Arkansas -1.5 (-110)
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