UNLV and New Mexico come into this matchup as two of the best teams in the Mountain West. UNLV needs a win to get closer to the NCAA Tournament, while New Mexico already clinched the Mountain West title. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a UNLV-New Mexico prediction and pick.
UNLV is 17-13 and has won six of its last seven games and three straight entering this matchup. It has notable wins against Utah State and San Diego State twice. It also had massive losses in Memphis, Mississippi State, Creighton, Boise State, Colorado State twice, Utah State, and New Mexico. Dedan Thomas Jr. is the best player for the Rebels and needs to have a giant game on the road against the Lobos to win.
New Mexico is 24-6 this season and has won two straight entering Senior Night. They have notable wins against VCU, Colorado State twice, San Diego State, Utah State twice, and Boise State. They also have significant losses against St. John’s, Boise State, and San Diego State. Donovan Dent has had a fantastic season for the Lobos, and he’s primed to carry them to their last home game of the year.
Here are the UNLV-New Mexico College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: UNLV-New Mexico Odds
UNLV: +11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +500
New Mexico: -11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -720
Over: 147.5 (-110)
Under: 147.5 (-110)
How to Watch UNLV vs. New Mexico
Time: 8:00 pm ET/7:00 pm PT
TV: CBSSN
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Why UNLV Will Cover The Spread/Win
UNLV’s defense has been solid this season and much more reliable than their offense. They allow 67.9 points per game, 42.2% from the field, and 32.1% from behind the arc. The defense is also a top-60 defense in KenPom, with a 100.5 rating.
This frontcourt has been solid and has depth. Jeremiah Cherry is the leader in rebounds and blocks, averaging 5.3 and 1.5 per game, respectively. This perimeter defense has also been solid. Four different Rebels are averaging at least one steal and Jaden Henley is the best defender, averaging 1.5 steals per game.
The Rebels have been red-hot recently, and their defense is the key to impacting this game in New Mexico. The Lobos are the best team in the conference for a reason, but defense travels and if they have any hope of winning it’s due to their defense.
Why New Mexico Will Cover The Spread/Win
UNLV’s offense has struggled this season and has been inconsistent. They score 69.7 points per game, have a 44.6% field goal percentage, and a 34.2% three-point shooting percentage. They also have the 143rd-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency rating on KenPom, with a 108.8 rating.
Three Rebels are averaging over double digits in scoring, and Thomas Jr. has consistently been the best player for UNLV on offense, averaging 15.6 points per game. Regarding ball movement, the Rebels have struggled. They average 12.1 assists per game, and Thomas is the engine that makes this offense go, averaging 4.7 per game.
This offense relies heavily on Thomas Jr.’s scoring and passing the ball. Henley and Jailen Bedford have also been solid on a bad offense. They should be able to score on the Lobos because New Mexico’s defense has not been a shutdown unit, but it’s a matter of whether they can fully keep up.
New Mexico has arguably one of the best offenses in the Mountain West. They score 82.3 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 46.1%, and a three-point percentage of 34.9%. This offense is also 76th in KenPom and has an adjusted offensive rating of 113.5.
Four Trojans are averaging over double digits this season, showcasing the team’s balance. Dent is the best Lobos scorer, averaging 20.4 points per game. Nelly Junior Joseph is next up in scoring, averaging 13.4 points per game. The team has also been solid moving the ball, averaging 15.3 assists per game. Dent has also been the best passer on the team, averaging 6.5 assists per game.
This offense has had a roller coaster of a season, but for the most part, it has been outstanding. They have the depth to consistently attack teams. They should succeed against a solid UNLV defense.
New Mexico’s defense has been more inconsistent than its offense but still solid. They allow 71.5 points per game, 43% from the field, and 34.5% from behind the arc. Their defense is ranked higher on KenPom than their offense, with a rating of 96.1.
This frontcourt has been solid this season with Junior Joseph being the best player down low. Joseph is the rebound and block leader, averaging 11 and 1.5 per game, respectively. The perimeter defense has been great for the Lobos this season. Tru Washington is the steals leader, averaging 2.1 per game.
Their defense has been inconsistent, but they have talent and should play well against UNLV. The Rebels don’t have much on offense.
Final UNLV-New Mexico Prediction & Pick
UNLV has a solid defense that does travel, but the Lobos are just better across the board this season. The Lobos are the best team in the Mountain West, and despite already locking up the regular-season title, they should win and cover at home.
Final UNLV-New Mexico Prediction & Pick: New Mexico -11.5 (-110)
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