The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars are on two different trajectories coming out of the 2024-25 NFL campaign, with the former snagging their second straight AFC South title and the latter winning just four games. But they are each in the midst of a pivotal offseason. The Texans need to build the most balanced roster possible before beginning contract talks with C.J. Stroud next year, while the Jags must find a new identity around Trevor Lawrence.
Thursday’s Christian Kirk trade might help both teams accomplish those respective goals. Jacksonville traded the seven-year wide receiver to Houston for a 2026 seventh-round draft pick, which originally belonged to the Los Angeles Rams. The Jaguars planned to release him but secured a deal with their divisional rival instead, as they enter free agency with a ton of financial flexibility.
Although Kirk has missed a combined 14 games the last two seasons and is set to carry a $24 million cap hit into 2025-26, he is still a solid slot WR who can potentially become a key safety net for Stroud. The former Texas A&M standout is only 28 years of age and averaged 14.0 yards per reception in eight 2024 games, so there is always a chance he enjoys a resurgence in Space City.
As stated before, these two franchises are in different spots at the moment, making it difficult to assign grades to this trade. We will do so, anyway, though. It is important to consider the possible short-term and long-term effects of the Kirk move, something that is of interest to both fan bases in the always busy month of March. Let’s get started.
Texans Trade Grade: B
Houston general manager Nick Caserio traded a seventh-round draft pick for Joe Mixon last offseason in an effort to upgrade the backfield, and now he is shipping out the same trade value with the purpose of fortifying the team’s wide receiver depth. Stefon Diggs is a free agent and coming off a torn ACL, and Tank Dell has an even longer road to recovery after suffering a gruesome knee injury last season. Simply put, the Texans need pass-catchers.
Kirk’s 2024-25 campaign also ended prematurely after he underwent surgery in October to repair a broken collarbone, but when healthy, the veteran is a reliable complimentary receiver. He recorded 84 catches for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns in a career-best 2022-23 season and would have likely eclipsed 1,000 yards the following year if he stayed on the field.
Superb rookie Brian Thomas Jr. pushed Kirk out of a prominent role in the first half of 2024-25, and the aforementioned collarbone injury denied him a chance at a fall and winter surge. Consequently, his stock declined precipitously heading into this offseason. Houston was just offensively-depleted enough to make Jacksonville an offer, however.
The organization had only $14.4 million in cap space to start the day, limiting its ability to add a superior talent like DK Metcalf, who requested a trade from the Seattle Seahawks earlier this week. The Texans went a cheaper route with Kirk, but the deal is still potentially costly.
And that is why I am only stamping a B on Caserio’s report card. While the fifth-year GM opted not to engage in a bidding war for the 2018 second-rounder, the current contract is presumably more expensive than the one Kirk would have commanded in free agency. Moving with haste can be both shrewd and desperate, and that seems to be the case here.
Nevertheless, C.J. Stroud now has a solid No. 2 target behind Pro Bowler Nico Collins. If management negotiates a restructured deal to lower the cap hit, fans will have even more reason to feel good about the trade.
Jaguars Trade Grade: B
The Jags were active on Thursday, to say the least. In addition to moving Christian Kirk, they released tight end Evan Engram, return specialist Devin Duvernay and wide receiver Josh Reynolds. The new regime, led by general manager James Gladstone, now has $60 million in cap space. Finding a way to get draft compensation for Kirk should be a welcome bonus during this cost-cutting-a-Palooza.
But Jacksonville is taking a risk by handing Kirk over to an AFC South foe, one that boasts a 9-3 divisional record over the last two years. While the front office’s primary focus is to obtain anything possible for a player it is going to release, it is less than ideal to help Houston fill a glaring hole.
The football gods perk up when such a scenario presents itself, and that is a concerning thought given that they have not been too keen on the Jaguars of late. Fans will groan if a healthy Kirk thrives with the Texans and punishes their squad twice next season. If you remove that hypothetical malaise out of the equation, however, it is reasonable to be optimistic about Jacksonville’s future.
Gladstone has the means to build a formidable roster around quarterback Trevor Lawrence, which could possibly include Metcalf as a Kirk replacement. If he uses the team’s resources wisely, this franchise should compete for an AFC South crown in 2025-26.
I know it seems like a cop-out to give the Jaguars and Texans the same trade grade, but it just feels right. Depending on how Houston rectifies Kirk’s big cap number and the Jaguars fill his slot, this transaction could look much better for either or both sides. As of now, though, they each get solid marks for making a fairly rational gamble less than a week before free agency begins.
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