Auburn is playing like one of the best teams in the country, while Texas A&M is on a downward spiral recently. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Auburn-Texas A&M prediction and pick.
Auburn is 27-2, with notable wins against Houston, Iowa State, Missouri, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Alabama, and Kentucky. Their only losses have been to Duke and Florida. This team goes as Johni Broome this year as he is playing. Broome is one of the best players in the country and can take over this game on the road against the Aggies. This is a big game toward the Tigers’ march to the top seed in the tournament.
Texas A&M is 20-9 but has lost four straight entering this matchup. Its resume is littered with quality wins, such as those against Creighton, Texas Tech, Purdue, Texas, Oklahoma twice, Ole Miss, and Missouri. Their losses to Oregon, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Florida were not as bad. The Aggies need Wade Taylor IV to have a giant game against the Tigers to break out of their slump.
Here are the Auburn-Texas A&M College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Auburn-Texas A&M Odds
Auburn: -5.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -255
Texas A&M: +5.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +205
Over: 148.5 (-115)
Under: 148.5 (-105)
How to Watch Auburn vs. Texas A&M
Time: 9:00 pm ET/6:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN
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Why Auburn Will Cover The Spread/Win
Auburn’s offense has played great this season and is only behind Alabama in the SEC. They score 85.4 points per game, have a 48.5% field goal percentage, and a 37.1% three-point shooting percentage. Auburn also has the top-ranked adjusted offense on KenPom, with a 130.7.
Six Tigers are averaging over double digits in scoring, and Johni Broome is the best scorer on the team, averaging 18.4 points per game. Broome also leads the team in assists at 3.3 per game. Auburn is playing great offense this year, and it all goes through Johni Broome, a candidate for player of the year in college basketball. The team is also averaging 16.4 assists per game.
Outside of Broome, the Tigers are incredibly balanced on offense and should be able to score all over the Aggies. Texas A&M has made their defense key to what they do this season, but Auburn has so many ways they can beat you on offense and should score easily, even on the road.
Auburn’s defense has been solid but lagging behind its elite offense. It allows 68.8 points per game, 40.4% from the field, and 29.4% from behind the arc. This defense is also ranked 10th in adjusted defense with a 93.1 rating.
The frontcourt is all about Broome and what he can do down low. He has been a beast and leads the team in rebounds and blocks, averaging 10.8 and 2.4 per game, respectively. This perimeter defense has also been a giant strength for the Tigers. Three different players are averaging at least one steal per game. Chad Baker-Mazara is the best perimeter defender on the team, averaging 1.2 per game.
The Tigers have the athletes and defenders to swarm Texas A&M and their unimpressive offense on the road. The Aggies have athletes and playmakers, but they have struggled to do much on offense and this is a terrible matchup for them.
Texas A&M’s offense has talent, but they have had issues all season and are spiraling. They score 73.8 points per game, have a 41.8% field goal percentage, and a 30.6% three-point shooting percentage. The advanced metrics like this offense are more than the standard stats because they are a top-60 offense with a 116 rating on KenPom.
This offense only has two consistent scorers: Zhuric Phelps and Taylor IV. Taylor IV leads the Aggies in scoring with 15.1 points per game, while Phelps averages 14.4 points. Taylor IV also leads the team in assists at 4.6 per game, but as a team, the Aggies struggle to move the ball fluently and only average 12 assists per game.
The Aggies’ roster is littered with talent, but they need consistency on offense. This is a massive challenge against the Auburn defense.
Why Texas A&M Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Aggies’ defense has been excellent all season and is in the top three of the SEC. They allow 67.4 points per game, 40.2% from the field, and 33.2% from behind the arc. In KenPom, their defensive rating is 93, which is eighth in adjusted defense.
The frontcourt has been balanced at best. Andersson Garcia leads the team in rebounding with 5.8 per game, and Solomon Washington leads the team in blocks with 1.3 per game. The Aggies have been a tremendous on-ball defensive team, and their strength is significant. Four Aggies are averaging at least one steal, with Phelps leading the team with 1.9 per game.
The Aggies’ defense can handle anyone in the SEC. I think they can throw a wrench into what Auburn does on offense, but the question remains whether it will be enough.
Final Auburn-Texas A&M Prediction & Pick
Auburn is the better team and while this is a tough road trip, A&M is spiraling. Taylor IV and Phelsp can only do so much. Auburn should dominate down low with Broome. Auburn wins and covers in College Station.
Final Auburn-Texas A&M Prediction & Pick: Auburn -5.5 (-120)
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