These are two bubble teams in the Big 12 that desperately need to keep winning. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Baylor-Cincinnati prediction and pick.
Baylor is 16-11 and has lost three of its last four games. It has quality wins against Arkansas, St. John’s, Kansas, and West Virginia. It also has notable losses to Gonzaga, Tennessee, UConn, Iowa State, Arizona twice, BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston. Norchad Omier has emerged as the best player for the Bears, and they need him to be a difference-maker in this game against the Bearcats.
Cincinnati is 16-11 this season and has lost two straight. They have quality wins against Xavier, Dayton, and BYU. They also have significant losses against Villanova, Kansas State, Arizona, Baylor, Kansas, BYU, Utah, West Virginia twice, and Iowa State. Jizzle James makes the Bearcats go, and they need him to have a giant game against the Bears to keep improving their resume.
Here are the Baylor-Cincinnati College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Baylor-Cincinnati Odds
Baylor: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +115
Cincinnati: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -138
Over: 138.5 (-108)
Under: 138.5 (-112)
How to Watch Baylor vs. Cincinnati
Time: 7:00 pm ET/4:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN2
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Baylor Will Cover The Spread/Win
Baylor’s offense has been one of the better units in the Big 12. They score 78.5 points per game, have a 45.4% field-goal percentage, and shoot 35.8% three-pointers. In KenPom, Baylor has the 13th-ranked adjusted offense, with a rating of 122.3.
Four different Bears are averaging over double digits. Omier is the best player on this offense, averaging 15.8 points per game and dominating from down low. VJ Edgecombe has also been great as an instant-impact freshman, averaging 14.7 points per game.
Robert Wright III is the assists leader, averaging 4.5 per game, and the rest of the team averages 15 per game. This offense is a giant strength for the Bears, and they get a big matchup against an elite Cincinnati defense. This matchup should decide the game for either team, and I think Baylor has enough juice to score in this game, even on the road.
Cincinnati’s offense has also been one of the worst in the conference. They score 71.7 points per game, have a field-goal percentage of 45.5%, and have a three-point percentage of 32.9%. They are also 91st in adjusted offense, with a 112.2 rating on KenPom.
Three players are averaging over double digits this season, with James being the most consistent scorer on the team, averaging 12.4 points per game. James is the engine for this offense and makes them go while also leading the team in assists with 3.9 per game. The team has also struggled to move the ball, only averaging 13.8 assists per game.
This offense has had a rough time in Big 12 play. They will have a lot of issues in this matchup against a TCU defense that has more than enough playmakers in this game. Expect this offense to struggle.
Why Cincinnati Will Cover The Spread/Win
Baylor’s defense has been okay at best this season. They allow 70.3 points per game, 44.1% from the field, and 35.6% from behind the arc. On KenPom, this defense is ranked 66th in adjusted defense, with a 101.6 rating.
Omier has been a beast for the Bears down low. He leads the team in rebounding and blocks, with 10.4 and one per game, respectively. Omier is the best player for the Bears down low, but they have more depth on the perimeter. Five players are averaging at least one steal, with Edgecombe being the best defender, averaging two steals per game.
This defense has talent, but they have struggled to find consistency. This is a good matchup because the Bearcats have had a lot of trouble scoring, and the Bears can take advantage of that, even on the road in Cincinnati.
Cincinnati’s defense has been one of the best in the Big 12 and utterly different from their offense. They allow 64.9 points per game, 41.9% from the field and 31.9% from behind the arc. KenPom also rates the Bearcats’ defense as the 22nd-best in college basketball, with a rating of 96.7.
Down low, this frontcourt has been solid overall. Dillon Mitchell and Aziz Bandaogo have been a great tandem up front on defense. Mitchell leads the Bearcats with 6.6 rebounds per game and steals with 1.5. Bandaogo is the block leader with 1.5 per game.
Cincinnati’s defense faces a tough matchup against a great Baylor offense. This matchup will decide the game, and while the Bearcats have the home-court advantage, Baylor has proven they can score on almost anyone.
Final Baylor-Cincinnati Prediction & Pick
Baylor is the play in this game. The Bears have been slipping recently and are dealing with injuries, but they have more talent than the Bearcats and are more desperate for a win. These two teams are both on the bubble, but I trust Baylor more. The Bears win and cover on the road.
Final Baylor-Cincinnati Prediction & Pick: Baylor +2.5 (-110)
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