Hold onto your popcorn, folks! The 2025 awards season is serving up more twists and turns than a rollercoaster designed by a caffeine-fueled screenwriter. Just when we thought we had the Oscars race all figured out, along comes Conclave, strutting its stuff and flipping the script.
This papal thriller, starring Ralph Fiennes, just snagged a Screen Actors Guild Award, leaving Hollywood buzzing and bookies recalculating their odds. Conclave wasn’t exactly the frontrunner in the Oscar race. With heavyweights like Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez dominating the conversation, this underdog’s victory at the SAG Awards has thrown a holy wrench into the proceedings.
This unexpected win has critics and fans alike re-evaluating their Oscar predictions. Could Conclave be the dark horse that ascends to cinematic sainthood? Its exploration of Vatican intrigue and power plays has clearly resonated with audiences and actors, but will the Academy follow suit? The SAG Awards are often a bellwether for Oscar success, but in a year as unpredictable as this, who knows?
Conclave challenges the Oscar titans
Before the SAG Awards, the smart money was on films like Anora, Sean Baker‘s tale of a s*x worker’s unconventional journey, and The Brutalist, the ambitious drama featuring Adrien Brody. Emilia Pérez, with its 13 Oscar nominations, was also a formidable contender, despite recent controversies surrounding its lead actress, Karla Sofía Gascón.
Let’s look back at the 1999 Oscars. If the Shakespeare in Love vs. Saving Private Ryan debacle taught us anything, it’s that Oscar races aren’t always about the best film, sometimes, it’s about momentum, charm, and a well-played campaign. Conclave’s surprise SAG win has now positioned it as a serious Oscar contender, despite not being the presumed frontrunner. Sound familiar?
Shakespeare in Love rode a wave of industry goodwill and some strategic behind-the-scenes maneuvering to victory over Steven Spielberg’s war epic. Similarly, Conclave is now threatening to dethrone the supposed heavyweights of this year’s Best Picture race.
Its ensemble cast’s victory suggests a groundswell of support within the acting community, a factor that could influence Academy voters. The film’s intricate plot and stellar performances have struck a chord, positioning it as a potential spoiler in the Best Picture race. As we inch closer to Oscar night, the suspense is palpable. Will Conclave perform a cinematic miracle, or will it be a one-hit wonder?
How do the other categories contribute to the Oscar race?
If Conclave is the Shakespeare in Love of this year’s Best Picture race, then the acting categories are serving up their own brand of delightful unpredictability. Timothée Chalamet won Best Male Actor in a Leading Role at the SAG Awards for A Complete Unknown. His win wasn’t unexpected. This win makes him a major Oscar threat against Adrien Brody’s brilliant performance in The Brutalist.
Meanwhile, the Best Actress race is as unpredictable as an indie film’s third act. Demi Moore now has a SAG win under her belt for The Substance. The favorite for this category was Mikey Madison for Anora, who took home the BAFTA.
Anora being snubbed in two major categories could affect its standing in the Oscar race. Seems like a repeat of 1999 right? Yet, with the ever-shifting sands of this awards season, surprises may still be in store as sources told Variety that Anora remains a favorite among the people voting at the Oscars.
As we approach the Oscars, one thing is certain, this year’s race is as open as a church door on Sunday. With Conclave shaking up the Best Picture category and fierce competition in the acting races, predicting the outcomes is anyone’s guess. So, keep your eyes peeled, your predictions flexible, and enjoy the divine drama that is the 2025 awards season.
Conclave can be streamed on Apple TV+.
This post belongs to FandomWire and first appeared on FandomWire
